What a top no-virus leader said about deaths in 2020, when people were dying
The massive increase in US deaths in 2020
Deaths in the United States increased by 19% in 2020, compared to the usual 2%—by far the largest increase in deaths in the last century, with 529k more deaths than the year before. Nothing like it has happened since the “Spanish Flu” of 1919—and the similarities between Spanish Flu and Covid are striking, as I showed in this article.
These numbers are not a matter of belief or opinion, they are a matter of record, and everyone who runs the same search in the US mortality database will get exactly the same results. For a summary of the numbers, and direct links to saved searches to quickly verify them, see the second half of this article.
“Is there really evidence of any increased illness or mortality right now, I would say, I don’t see it.” — Dr. Andrew Kaufman, Full-Day Workshop at ArkLight in Ghent, NY, November 15, 2020.
So, what would we expect a prominent no-virus leader to say about mortality, if he were asked about it in late 2020, when so many people were dying? The answer may or may not surprise you, depending on how much you’ve read in the US Democide Coverup category of my blog.
Dr. Andrew Kaufman
Dr. Andrew Kaufman is a well-known and widely respected leader in the movement to expose virology as an illegitimate science (the no-virus movement). He is an impressive and persuasive speaker, who always sounds civil, knowledgeable, and logical.
Unfortunately, as you will see here, Dr. Kaufman’s knowledge is sometimes disinformation, and his logic is sometimes a skillful illusion.
At a November 15, 2020, conference, Dr. Kaufman answered an audience question about increased deaths and hospitalizations that year; I break down his answer in this article. I think you will find it as instructive as I did—not about US mortality, but about how to use gaslighting, misdirection, and pseudo-intellectual blather to conceal a mass-murder happening right under our noses.
Mortality as of November 15, 2020
Since deaths are a matter of record, we have a pretty good idea of what numbers Dr. Kaufman would have seen, up to the date of the conference in Week 47. However, we cannot know exactly, because delays in issuing death certificates are routine, and records in recent weeks are only partially complete. That means the number of deaths Dr. Kaufman saw in the weeks leading up to the conference were somewhat lower than the finalized records show now. However, death records for the first 37 weeks or so of 2020 would have been substantially complete at that time, although not finalized.
Chart 1 shows weekly US deaths recorded in 2018 (in medium gray), 2019 (in light grey) and 2020 (in orange). Deaths after the date of the conference are shown in dark gray, since they were unknown at the time. Both the top and bottom parts of Chart 1 illustrate the same weekly death numbers, just in different ways, for more clarity.
Chart 1: Weekly US deaths from all causes 2018-2020. See Note 1 for the source of this data. See Note 3 for a data table.
Dr. Kaufman was asked about both increased deaths and increased hospitalizations. I’ve never reported on hospitalizations, and don’t know if this information is available to the public. However, since death certificates include the place of death, we can at least see how many deaths occurred in medical facilities.
Chart 2 shows both the total number of weekly US deaths from 2018 thru 2020, and the number of weekly deaths that occurred in medical facilities—whether inpatient, outpatient or ER, dead on arrival, or status unknown. Total deaths in 2020 are shown in orange, and deaths in medical facilities are shown in green.
Chart 2: Weekly US deaths and deaths in medical facilities, 2018-2020. See Note 2 for the source of this data. See Note 3 for a data table.
Medical facility deaths increased pretty much in line with overall increases in death. At the peak of the first 2020 death surge in Week 15, medical facility deaths accounted for about 38% of deaths (30k out of 79k). It was almost the same percentage in Week 15 of 2019, although the numbers were a lot lower—medical facility deaths accounted for 37% of all deaths (20k out of 55k).
For a table of the data used in these charts, see Note 3.
The question and answer
The clip below is from the full recording found here in “Question and Answer Session with Tom and Andy,” starting around minute 17. The audio is very poor for the audience question, but Dr. Kaufman’s response is loud and clear.
The audience question:
“[…] How, given what you’ve told us tonight, how do you understand, um, the superspreader defense, and this current surge? I know that the numbers of diagnosed cases probably has more to do with testing, or lack of testing, but there are people being hospitalized and dying at higher rates, from covid—at least it’s reported.”
Dr. Kaufman’s answer:
“Well, I would say, don’t rely on what’s reported—go to the source for the information. Because, uh, are there really excess hospitalizations, like, compared to previous years? Or are there just more compared to the summer, because we are getting to the, s…, eh, seasonal flu season?
“And, you know, if you look every year, there’s a…we’re, we’re biological organisms, right, so we have cyclical patterns, and some of these are related to the seasons, and we see this in all, you know, examples of life. And so, if you look at mortality on an annual basis, you see it also follows cyclical patterns, and the summer is the time of the lowest rate of hospitalizations and the lowest mortality, throughout the year, and the winter is highest. And specifically.it kind of ramps up in the fall as the humidity drops [did he mean temperature?], and kind of peaks around January or February, usually.
“So like last year’s, ah, peak was, was kind of later, and artificial, ah, and we, we can talk about that if anyone wants, but, is there really evidence of any increased illness or mortality right now—I would say, I don’t see it.”
Analysis
There are a couple ways to interpret the question: Was the audience member asking whether deaths were currently increasing? Or, was she asking whether deaths had increased in 2020 overall? Dr. Kaufman seemed to take both into consideration in his answer, so I’ll do the same. Either way, both were true at the time of the conference, according to the official source of US mortality data: Deaths were increasing at that time, and deaths had also increased in 2020 overall—a lot—more than any other year in the last century.
The death records may have been substantially incomplete for the most recent weeks prior to the conference, as I mentioned earlier. However, the records were complete enough for Kaufman to see deaths were increasing at that time. We know that because he claimed the increase was consistent with the usual seasonal increase. Whether true or not at that time, we know that the number of deaths that year was much, much higher than normal—a fact he never mentioned in his answer.
Gaslighting
Dr. Kaufman told the questioner she should have gone directly to “the source” for death numbers, instead of relying on what was reported. This allowed him to imply she was wrong about deaths increasing, without telling an outright lie.
Kaufman used rhetorical questions to suggest the questioner had misinterpreted a normal seasonal increase in deaths as abnormal. Again, this allowed him to imply deaths had not increased, without telling an outright lie.
In reality, the audience member was correct—deaths had been extraordinarily high that year, according to the official US mortality database (“the source”), and deaths were also increasing at the time of the conference.
This is called gaslighting.
“The action of tricking or controlling someone by making them believe things that are not true, especially by suggesting that they may be mentally ill.”
Cambridge Advanced Learner's Dictionary & Thesaurus © Cambridge University Press.
Most definitions seem geared toward abusive personal relationships, rather than corrupt media thought leaders promoting false narratives to the public—but I suspect the latter are a lot more common. Because you cannot force anyone to believe anything—if you want people to buy into a false narrative, you have to convince them it is true—which is the definition of gaslighting.
In this context, I think it is more common to suggest people are incompetent, naive, or socially irresponsible if they don’t buy into the false narrative, rather than mentally ill. For example, Dr. Kaufman’s condescending response to the questioner in this case, designed to convince her she had exercised poor judgment about who and what to believe, when in fact she had not.
2. Misdirection
Misdirection is a slight of hand used to distract us from the truth of the matter.
Consider the seasonal variation in deaths in 2018 and 2019, shown in Chart 1 in medium gray and light gray. Deaths gradually decreased as summer approached, and gradually increased toward winter, peaking in the cold season with about 10,000 more deaths per week than the summer low. This is a longstanding historical pattern that Dr. Kaufman was well aware of, since he described it himself in his answer.
Now, consider the pattern of deaths in 2020, shown in orange in Chart 1. It does not resemble the usual seasonal pattern at all, except very early in the year. Instead of a gradual transition from winter highs to summer lows and back to winter highs, there were 3 distinct waves or surges in deaths in 2020—two of them occurring in Spring and Summer, when deaths are ordinarily low.
In other words, typical seasonal variation had nothing to do with the death surges in 2020, and could not possibly explain them. However, it would require more knowledge about mortality than most people have to realize that.
3. Pseudo-intellectual blather
After establishing his expertise in cyclical patterns related to the seasons that are seen in all examples of life, Dr. Kaufman raised a very bizarre claim: That the first death spike in Spring 2020 (which included the New York City mass casualty event) was actually the artificially delayed normal death peak for 2019—the peak that would ordinarily occur in December or January. He offered to discuss this more if anyone was interested, but unfortunately, it never came up again.
Let’s think about this for a moment: Deaths were normal in 2019—a little higher than 2018, but consistent with the trend over the last decade. A death peak in April has never happened before—no yearly death peaks have ever occurred later than January (not even in February as Dr. Kaufman claimed, possibly because February is a short month).
What novel forces have the power to delay tens of thousands of deaths for months? Or was he suggesting deaths were fraudulently post-dated, presumably creating a nightmare of delayed Social Security death benefits and life insurance payouts? I guess now we will never know.
However, even if such a thing were possible, the mere redistribution of deaths over a few additional months would not fundamentally change the overall massive increase around that time.
For a chart of the seasonal monthly death pattern, which had been very consistent for many decades prior to 2020, see the first page of Chapter 3 online here, from my reference book on US mortality. I am very proud of this book, which makes it easy for anyone to understand years of US mortality data in minutes.
The digital version is great for students, researchers, and others who want live links to saved searches in the official database. The full-color print version is gorgeous, if I may say so myself, and is ideal for those looking for a uniquely useful Covid-19 collectors item for their bookshelf, or to gift to their local library or favorite media figure.
4. What Dr. Kaufman did not say
Dr. Kaufman did not indicate that any part of the question was beyond his knowledge and expertise about US mortality.
Dr. Kaufman did not acknowledge any increase in deaths in 2020. He did not claim that any increases in death could be explained by harmful Covid treatment protocols, stress, mass hysteria, or anything else—he said deaths did not increase.
Dr. Kaufman did not claim any 2020 death data was fake. Again, he claimed there had been no abnormal increase in deaths that year—which conflicts with the idea that deaths were faked.
Confirmation of the numbers Kaufman saw
We know for certain how many deaths were recorded in the official database from mid-March to mid-September 2020, as of the November 2020 conference. We know that number because it was published in a November 2020 article in the Johns Hopkins News-Letter. This was actually a multifaceted propaganda operation to convince people deaths were normal in 2020, which I exposed in this article.
The author of the Johns Hopkins News-Letter article, a graduate student, published the number of deaths recorded in the official database from mid-March to mid-September 2020. The numbers were consistent with the numbers in the database now, so we know that no major changes to the numbers were made after that time.
Like Dr. Kaufman, the author of the Johns Hopkins News-Letter article claimed deaths had been normal in 2020, compared to prior years. She didn’t provide any mortality data to back this claim up, because there was none, given it was a false claim.
That is how I exposed the deception—by looking up the historical death numbers the author concealed. It didn’t require any special expertise, complicated statistical formulas or math—just an objective count of deaths in prior years, using data that is freely available to the public.
I see this kind of brazen mockery all the time—opinionators simply lying about deaths in 2020, or saying whatever to explain them, and counting on people not knowing enough about the mortality data to realize it.
In spite of the high level of trust Dr. Kaufman usually enjoys, there are limits, and I do not think his answer would have flown so easily, even among a doting crowd, had the audience had access to the mortality data in Chart 1 and Chart 2 at that time. There is just no way for a rational person to look at those charts and not see a profound increase in deaths in 2020.
Closing thoughts
If you accept the proposition that virology is not a legitimate science (which I do), it raises the obvious question: What killed so many people in 2020?
No major alt-media or no-virus figures have seriously investigated that question. In fact, they would obviously prefer we not know deaths increased at all. Few have even mentioned it over the last 5 years, much less engaged in serious discussion about it. This has led to a widespread false belief among alternative media consumers that deaths were mostly normal in 2020, which persists to this day.
At most, we are led to believe that any excess deaths in 2020 can be easily explained—usually by poor medical treatment, iatrogenic effects, stress, or mass-hysteria.
Make no mistake—there is no research to back up any of these explanations—and they conflict with certain aspects of the mortality data on their face. After 5 years, no one has correlated excess deaths with any of these explanations, so they are all still solidly in the realm of pure speculation—with many reasons to doubt them. I described some of those reasons in this article.
When the World Health Organization declares the next global viral pandemic, do you think the alternative media will keep you apprised of the next democide in progress? If so, you are partly an eternal optimist, and partly delusional. Be sure to sub to my blog to stay on top of reality.
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NOTES
1) For weekly US deaths from all causes, run this search: https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D176/D418F876
Suggested citation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics System, Provisional Mortality on CDC WONDER Online Database. Data are from the final Multiple Cause of Death Files, 2018-2022, and from provisional data for years 2023-2024, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Accessed at http://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10-provisional.html on Dec 25, 2024 11:01:09 PM
2) For week US deaths in medical facilities, run this search: https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D176/D418F877
Suggested citation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics System, Provisional Mortality on CDC WONDER Online Database. Data are from the final Multiple Cause of Death Files, 2018-2022, and from provisional data for years 2023-2024, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Accessed at http://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10-provisional.html on Dec 25, 2024 11:10:06 PM
3) Data table for Chart 1 and Chart 2:
