What if half of all VAERS reports are false?

Where are all the vaccine risk analyses?

One of the main objections people have to using VAERS data to estimate vaccine risk is that reports to VAERS don’t prove the vaccine caused the injury—which of course is a perfectly legitimate objection. All databases have certain limitations, and that is one of the main limitations of VAERS—along with the fact that only a “small fraction” of vaccine injuries are reported (1).

While not a perfect or even ideal way to estimate vaccine risk, VAERS is the only vaccine injury data that’s available to the general public. That means there are 2 choices for the average person: use VAERS data to estimate vaccine risk; or don’t estimate vaccine risk at all.

I chose the first option. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) chose the second option—even though they have access to additional data the general public doesn’t, such as the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD). None have published any risk calculations like I’ve done, using VAERS data, VSD data, or any other data. There are a few snippets of actual risk numbers scattered here and there, but nowhere people can go if they want an answer to the fundamental question, “What is my risk of death or serious injury from COVID19 vaccination?”

Call me a cynic, but I think there’s a very good reason why no one promoting COVID19 vaccines has published any kind of risk analysis—because it’s better for business if people go by feels instead of numbers.

“How many vaccine injuries and deaths compared to the number of vaccines administered? Who cares! Here’s a list of 10 published, peer-reviewed research studies showing the vaccines are safe and effective, and anyone who questions it is an idiot and a menace to society.”

What percentage of vaccine injuries are reported to VAERS?

I adjust for VAERS underreporting on the CVax Risk page by giving a range of possible risk estimates, and I’ve done the same thing in the risk chart below. If you’re not sure how to read the chart, please see the CVax Risk page for more information.

I’m often reminded that the FDA ‘requires’ healthcare providers to report any death after COVID-19 vaccination to VAERS. But contrary to surface appearances, that doesn’t mean all or even most vaccine deaths are reported.

First, the only deaths vaccine providers will usually know about are the very rare ones that occur during the 15-30 minute monitoring period after the shot. Second, there’s no penalty for not reporting. Third, there’s no compensation for the considerable time involved in filing a VAERS report. Fourth, there are indications the rate of VAERS reporting is as low as ever among medical providers, such as this law firm letter written on behalf of a Physician Assistant at a regional New York hospital.

What if half of all VAERS reports are false?

In the following chart (2), I’ve cut the number of deaths and serious events reported to VAERS in half, to see what the estimated risks of vaccination would be if half of VAERS reports from COVID19 vaccines were coincidental (false)—meaning they would have occurred without the vaccine. The reports that were actually vaccine-related are called “true.”

To be clear, I think a 50% rate of coincidental (false) reports is a vast overestimate. I say that because it’s very burdensome to make a VAERS report—it takes time to fill out the paperwork and collect the necessary medical records, and no one gets paid for it. It’s not something most people are going to do if they don’t have to—and they never really “have to” because there’s no penalty if they don’t. But I wanted to give the COVID19 vaccines every benefit of the doubt for these risk estimates.

See Note 2 for the source of this data.

A few highlights

The optimist’s risk estimate:

If half of all VAERS reports were false, and 10% of vaccine injuries were reported, then the risk of death from 4 doses of vaccine is about 1 in 2000, and the risk of serious injury is about 1 in 350.

Estimated actual deaths: 73,890

Estimated actual serious events: 415,550

The pessimist’s risk estimate:

If half of all VAERS reports were false, and 1% of vaccine injuries were reported, then the risk of death from 4 doses of vaccine is about 1 in 200, and the risk of serious injury is about 1 in 35.

Estimated actual deaths: 738,900

Estimate actual serious events: 4,155,500

How a conversation with your doctor about these numbers might go, if he had to tell you about them

YOU: What are the chances the covid shots will kill me, doc?

DOC: It’s very rare. If you’re an optimist, your chances of dying from 4 doses of vaccine is only 1 in 2000.

YOU: Seriously?! What if I’m a pessimist?

DOC: Then your chances are 1 in 200.

YOU: Wow! That’s “rare”?

DOC: Absolutely! Just check the New Word Order Dictionary.

YOU: What are the chances I might be seriously injured by the shots?

DOC: That’s slightly less rare. If you’re an optimist, the risk is 1 in 350 for 4 shots. If you’re a pessimist, the risk is 1 in 35.

YOU: I’m a pessimist.

DOC: Too bad. But either way, the vaccines are “safe” and “effective.”

YOU: According to the New Word Order Dictionary?

DOC: Exactly.

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NOTES

(1) Only a “small fraction” of vaccine injuries are reported, according to guidance on the VAERS website. VAERS is jointly managed by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the Food & Drug Administration (FDA).

(2) For this chart, deaths and serious events reported to VAERS were cut in half, to account for 50% of VAERS reports being coincidental (false) reports. The CDC’s statement on covid shot death risk is located here. The number of serious events reported from covid shots was obtained with a VAERS search shown below. Reports are classified as “serious” if any of the following occur: Death, Permanent Disability, Life Threatening, Hospitalized, Existing Hospitalization Prolonged, Congenital Anomaly or Birth Defect.