Death by COVID-19 compared to death by vaccine: just the numbers

These estimates of serious injuries and deaths from COVI D-19 vaccines are based on reports to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), and the percent of vaccine injuries reported to VAERS. They are presented here without comment as reference material.

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The CDC publishes a count of deaths “involving COVID-19.” That means COVID-19 was either “confirmed” by a positive test result, or was “presumed” by an eyeball diagnosis or rule-out policy (where patients are presumed to have COVID-19 unless it’s ruled out) (1). “Involving COVID-19” is not a claim that COVID-19 or a virus SARS-CoV-2 necessarily caused or even contributed to the death.   

This chart shows deaths involving COVID-19, along with deaths and serious injuries reported to VAERS from the covid shots. (2)

There’s no dispute that only a fraction of vaccine injuries are reported to VAERS—the only dispute is what that fraction is. Guidance on the VAERS website, which is jointly managed by the CDC and the Food & Drug Administration (FDA), says only a “small fraction” of vaccine injuries are reported, although serious injuries are “probably” reported more often than minor ones (3). Other research gets more specific and says “fewer than 1%” of vaccine injuries are reported (4).

As the percent of vaccine injuries reported to VAERS goes down, the estimated number of actual vaccine injuries goes up. For example, if only 10% of vaccine injuries were reported, then there were 10 times more actual injuries than VAERS reports. And if only 1% of vaccine injuries were reported, there were 100 actual vaccine injuries for every 1 reported to VAERS.

Below are estimated deaths/serious injuries from covid shots, depending on the percent of vaccine injuries reported to VAERS. The estimates are compared to the number of deaths “involving COVID-19.” These estimates assume all VAERS reports were vaccine-related (not coincidental)—coincidental reports would make the estimates higher than they should be, so keep that in mind.

In these charts, the black dotted line shows deaths “involving COVID-19”; the red line shows estimated deaths from covid shots, and and the orange line shows estimated serious injuries & deaths. Here, 20% of vaccine injuries were reported to VAERS:

In this chart, 10% of vaccine injuries were reported to VAERS:

Here, 5% of vaccine injuries were reported and 95% were not:

And here, 1% of vaccine injuries were reported:

And, finally, this is what it looks like if 0.5% of vaccine injuries were reported to VAERS:

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Creative Commons License: Everything in this paper is my original work, and may be shared without alteration for educational purposes, with attribution to virginiastoner.com.

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NOTES:

(1)  COVID-19 Daily Updates of Totals by Week and State, National Center for Health Statistics: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

(2) VAERS search: Serious injuries (including deaths) reported from COVID19 vaccines:

(3)  Statement on VAERS underreporting from the CDC/FDA:  

(4)  Statement on VAERS underreporting from Harvard Pilgrim Healthcare Inc.:  

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