Death and the COVID-19 vaccines
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From 1990 through 2020, an average of 153 vaccine-related deaths per year were reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) in the US. The highest number ever reported was 203, in 1993.
In just the first quarter of 2021, VAERS has received 2478 reports of vaccine-related deaths, most concerning the COVID-19 vaccines (2432 of them). If that pace keeps up for the rest of the year, the total death reports could exceed 9900—a mind-boggling rate 48 times higher than in any other year in VAERS history. An astonishing one-third of all vaccine deaths ever reported to VAERS over the last 30 years were reported in the last 4 months.
The reason for the massive increase is NOT that more vaccines have been given this year than in previous years—mainly because we are only in the first quarter of 2021. This issue is covered more below.
I’m not a statistics expert by any means, although I had a few years training in research design and data analysis in college, and was even a statistics tutor for a while. My initial reaction to these numbers was shock and disbelief. The increase in reported deaths seems huge and unprecedented by any commonsense standard—it doesn’t take a statistics expert to see that. And the COVID-19 shots are responsible for the increase, because death reports from other vaccines are pretty close to the estimated average.
Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) DEATHS reported by year. Screenshot capture date April 16, 2021.
Anyone can verify the historical rate of VAERS death reports. Go to CDC Wonder and choose data search. On the request form under #1, select group data by “year reported”. Under #5, in event category, select “death”. You can leave everything else on the default selections for a US search. Click “send”.
There’s really no need to verify the numbers, though—the CDC regularly posts the total death count on its website, in a section called “Reports of death after COVID-19 vaccination” on its adverse events page.
Why the massive increase in death reports?
An obvious potential explanation is the number of vaccines administered this year has massively increased due to COVID-19, so naturally vaccine death reports increased as well. But that’s not the case. Fewer vaccines have been administered this year than the yearly average--mainly because we are only in the first quarter of 2021.
I don’t know exactly how many shots are given each year, but I know that from 2006-2014, an average of 281,381,000 vaccines were ‘distributed’ each year (but not necessarily administered to anyone). If we estimate that 280 million vaccines are administered yearly (70 million quarterly) then only 259 million vaccines have been administered so far in 2021 (189 million COVID-19 shots plus 70 million others).
Attempts to minimize or refute the VAERS death report data with objections like “anyone can report to VAERS” and “reports to VAERS don’t prove cause” are not relevant here, because those issues have been around as long as VAERS has. The question is, what has changed?
Maybe a new SARS-Cov-2 virus variant is causing an outbreak of mass hysteria—possibly a pandemic of Munchausen by Proxy Syndrome, where relatives, friends and doctors of people who died after a COVID-19 shot file VAERS reports for the attention it gets them.
That’s dark humor, of course. In fact, in all likelihood, only a fraction of the deaths potentially connected to the COVID-19 shots have been reported at all. It is widely agreed that vaccine adverse events are vastly underreported—but that’s a topic for another day.
The CDC speaks…in a mumble…with a wink and a nod
Bizarrely, the CDC has not attempted to explain the massive increase in VAERS death reports at all. As the reports continue to roll in at an unprecedented rate of dozens and sometimes hundreds per week, the CDC simply updates the death count on its adverse events page, and reiterates no safety problems have been detected. It’s disturbingly Orwellian.
As usual, it’s not a good idea to casually read anything the CDC writes. The exact wording has to be read carefully to decipher what’s actually being said, and what is only being implied to create a desired impression. Let’s start at the top.
“To date, Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) has not detected patterns in cause of death that would indicate a safety problem with COVID-19 vaccines.”
What this means is a computer system called VAERS is responsible for detecting possible vaccine safety problems—as if it were a trusted expert—and it has not detected any. Putting a computer system in charge has its advantages—especially if things go wrong. For example, as an inanimate machine, VAERS can’t be charged with crimes against humanity, even if people die. Its programmers, on the other hand…
Although we are told CDC and FDA physicians “review” each VAERS death report and may obtain additional medical records in some cases, there’s no indication this review includes any kind of scientific or statistical analyses, or contributes to the initial detection of vaccine safety issues which are entrusted to VAERS.
How does VAERS detect vaccine safety problems?
A slideshow called Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP): COVID-19 vaccine Safety update—January 2021 tells us a little more about VAERS. From page 12:
“As a hypothesis generating system, VAERS identifies potential vaccine safety concerns that can be studied in more robust data systems.”
So, apparently, VAERS is not considered a “robust” data system itself. What’s the opposite of “robust” – “rudimentary”? In any case, the description does not inspire much confidence, given lives are at stake.
On page 15, we learn that VAERS uses data mining to:
“…identify disproportional adverse event reporting for vaccines, including COVID-19 vaccines.”
And that VAERS:
“Identifies, with a high degree of confidence, adverse event-vaccine pairs reported at least twice as frequently as expected for a COVID-19 vaccine compared to the VAERS database.”
Wait—WHAT?
In just the first quarter of 2021, reports of death made to VAERS were 12 times higher than in any other entire year for the last 30 years. If the rest of 2021 continues like the first quarter, reports of vaccine deaths are on track to reach an incredible 48 times higher this year than ever before in VAERS history. Most of the deaths involve the COVID-19 vaccines.
How could VAERS not have found the massive increase in death reports “disproportional”? And how could VAERS not have found that deaths were reported “at least twice as frequently as expected”?
Maybe there’s a statistics expert out there who can set me straight on this, but my amateur mind can only think of a couple possibilities, both of which are rather chilling:
1) No VAERS analyses have been run since January, and death report rates were normal at that time. The slideshow mentions this analysis on page 15, but says “no data mining alerts” were found in the “most recent [January 22, 2021] weekly results”. So VAERS analyses are, or at least were at that time, run every week.
2) VAERS was programmed to expect an unusually high number of death reports from COVID-19 vaccines. In other words, VAERS did not detect a safety problem because the 2432 reported deaths were expected. Remember, VAERS only looks for adverse events occurring “twice as frequently as expected for a COVID-19 vaccine…”.
The CDC wants you to know…
Taking a closer look at the bullet points on the CDC’s adverse events page, in the section called “Reports of death after COVID-19 vaccination”…the problems, as usual, are more about what is not said than what is said.
· We are told vaccine providers are required to report deaths after COVID-19 shots. This creates a false impression most vaccine-related deaths are automatically reported, which is simply not true. Most vaccine providers, such as drug stores and pop-up or drive-up clinics, have no idea whether the recipients of their shots die in the hours, days or weeks following the shot—they only know about deaths that occur within their 15-minute monitoring period, which are very rare. That’s all they have to report; and besides, I didn’t find a penalty for failure to report. Otherwise, VAERS reporting is up to the doctors, friends or relatives of the deceased, who may or may not even know if the deceased got a COVID-19 shot.
· We are reminded that “Reports of death to VAERS following vaccination do not necessarily mean the vaccine caused the death.” This mantra is repeated over and over at every available opportunity by the CDC and media. What they never mention is, neither should we assume the vaccine didn’t cause the death, because that would be foolish. The CDC doesn’t mention it because they want people to make that foolish assumption.
· We are told “CDC follows up on any report of death to request additional information and learn more about what occurred and to determine whether the death was a result of the vaccine or unrelated.” Don’t mistake this for assurance that all relevant evidence has been examined and analyzed in all cases. It isn’t. There is absolutely no commitment here about the extent of the additional evidence obtained in any particular case, or the nature or extent of the analyses conducted.
· We are told “CDC, FDA, and other federal partners will continue to monitor the safety of COVID-19 vaccines.” Continue to monitor? What will they do—update the number of deaths on their website each week, and tell us all is well? Because that’s all they’ve been doing so far.
“No evidence” the COVID-19 shots are dangerous?
The CDC concludes in bold letters on its adverse events page, in the section called “Reports of death after COVID-19 vaccination”:
“A review of available clinical information including death certificates, autopsy, and medical records revealed no evidence that vaccination contributed to patient deaths. …”
A casual reader who is not familiar with the CDC’s expertise in perception management could easily mistake this statement to mean that all the relevant evidence in all cases had been examined and analyzed, and a cause of death confirmed in each case that had nothing to do with the vaccine.
But it says nothing of the kind. It says the “available” evidence was “reviewed,” which means no commitment is made about how much of the relevant evidence was available for review. Nor is there any indication of the nature and extent of the “review” which allegedly “revealed no evidence” the shots caused the deaths—as if the review were a magical ceremony that ended in a revelation of vaccine safety.
In fact, CDC and FDA physicians are undoubtedly aware that some of the reported deaths will eventually receive compensation awards in the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP), known as the vaccine court. The CDC knows, because of its own prior research, that every 1 million doses of vaccine has historically resulted in 1 award for vaccine injury in the VICP (read more here). Since 189 million COVID-19 shots have been administered so far, based on historical averages the CDC would expect to see 189 vaccine injury awards in the VICP from those shots—and that’s if the COVID-19 vaccines are no more dangerous than any others.
Conclusion
Why hasn’t the CDC explained the massive increase in deaths reported to VAERS from COVID-19 shots, or even acknowledged it or tried to explain it?
It can only be because the CDC believes speculation by the public (if they find out about it at all) is preferable to the truth.
They know a trusting public, to the extent they still exist, will imagine ‘benign’ justifications for the CDC’s actions, such as:
· “Yes, the shots are a little risky, but the risks from Covid-19 are a lot higher…”
· “They have to keep quiet about the risks of the shot, otherwise too many people would refuse it and we’d all die of Covid. It’s okay because I got my shot and I’m fine…”
· “I know we’re not getting the whole story, but the CDC has to keep some things secret for our own good…”
Etc., etc. Not me. I’d prefer some answers.