When ‘One-in-a-Million’ Really Means One-in-a-Hundred and Other Vaccine Chicanery
Originally Posted: 2018-1013; Revised: 2021-0306
A fictional (and optional) introduction.
“I…I have some concerns about vaccine safety, doctor,” said Mrs. Jones softly, lowering her eyes, voice quivering.
“The risk is one-in-a-million!” Dr. Borski replied impatiently, with a condescending smirk. He was readying a row of 3 vaccines for little Tommy, happily playing with a stuffed Minions doll.
Dr. Borski spoke with supreme confidence, having just completed the recommended training for dealing with ‘vaccine hesitant’ parents like Mrs. Jones. She didn’t stand a chance against the masters of manipulation who designed it for her own good. She’d crumble after his lecture on her gullibility for believing the Internet.
“But is it really a one-in-a-million risk, doctor?” Mrs. Jones asked, with a sudden confidence that shook Dr. Borski. Opening her purse, Mrs. Jones handed him a paper, carefully folded in thirds.
“This paper shows that, according to the Centers for Disease Control’s own research findings, Tommy’s risk of serious vaccine injury is probably closer to 1 in 1600, and could be as high as 1 in a 100—or even higher! That’s a lot more than one-in-a-million.”
“Where did you find this rubbish--the Internet?” sneered Dr. Borski.
“Yes, as a matter of fact—the same place I found your ‘one-in-a-million’ claim. I’ll reschedule to give you time to read it. It shouldn’t take you more than a few minutes.”
“But Tommy is already overdue for his shots! Do you want him to die?!” Dr. Borski put on his best horrified face, raising his voice a notch to emphasize the dire situation.
“I’ll risk it,” said Mrs. Jones with an eye roll, as she gathered up Tommy and headed out the door. Dr. Borski tossed the paper in the trash bin, where it was later properly disposed of by the cleaning crew. This is what Dr. Borski didn’t bother to read…
***
Vaccine risk is ‘one-in-a-million’?
The idea that vaccination risk is somewhere around ‘one-in-a-million’ is a common trope in the vaccine industry. It was introduced by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) several years ago, in research comparing vaccine sales and injury awards in the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP, the ‘Vaccine Court’). Here’s the statement that started it:
“According to the CDC, from 2006 to 2016 over 3.1 billion doses of covered vaccines were distributed in the U.S. For petitions filed in this time period, 5,531 petitions were adjudicated by the Court, and of those 3,749 were compensated. This means for every one million doses of vaccine that were distributed, one individual was compensated.” https://www.hrsa.gov/vaccine-compensation/data/
Most people will skim the first 2 sentences because they contain a list of numbers, and we can see the third sentence will tell us what they mean. Literally. “This means for every one million doses of vaccine that were distributed, one individual was compensated.”
Do you think that statement means there is a one-in-a-million risk of vaccine injury? I did when I first read it, and I think most casual readers would. But it doesn’t say that—not by a long shot. They want you to think it says that— and I can assure you, experts conferred long and hard about the exact words they would use to convey that information to the public. But it doesn’t say that—not by any stretch of the imagination.
This paper is not a scientific analysis of vaccine risk. It’s just an attempt to decipher the meaning of the ‘one-in-a-million’ trope in the vaccine discussion. So let’s parse it out and take a closer look.
1: First, the one-in-a-million risk is per dose of vaccine.
Currently, the CDC recommends a minimum of 50 doses of vaccine for every child age 0-17.[i] That means at least 50, 1 in a million chances of an injury compensation award for a fully vaccinated child—a 1 in 20,000 risk.
There are many vaccines recommended for adults, but even if they only get the yearly flu vaccine and live another 50 years, their chance of a vaccine injury compensation award jumps to 100 in a million (1 in 10,000).
Again, each dose of vaccine carries a one-in-a-million chance of a compensation award, according to the CDC/HRSA. It’s not a lifetime risk, it’s an additive, per-dose risk. The more vaccines you take, the higher your risk.
2: Second, the one-in-a-million risk applies to compensation awards, not vaccine injuries, which are much more numerous.
Many, likely MOST, vaccine injuries, are never filed in the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP). For a compensation award to occur, a claim has to be filed. That starts in motion what often involves years of litigation, until the claim is decided, dismissed or settled.
The injury first has to be connected to the vaccine by one of the people involved. Many lay people and medical professionals alike are unaware of the long list of vaccine injuries that have previously been compensated in the VICP, or for which there is otherwise scientific evidence of a connection to vaccination. Doctors and nurses receive virtually no training in the identification of vaccine injuries in college or medical school; and even if they become aware of possible connections, they have an interest in keeping it quiet.
No government agency publishes a list of specific compensated injuries to the best of my knowledge, other than the “Table Injuries”—a handful of injuries that all agree will be awarded compensation if proven to have occurred within a certain time frame of vaccination. However, the list of compensated injuries is much more extensive. Law firms may track and publish the injuries associated with awards, and I’ve included a list gathered from those sources as an endnote.[ii]
If the potential connection between the injury and vaccination isn’t discovered within 3 years, no claim can be filed in the VICP because it’s barred by the statute of limitations.
Finally, even if someone knows they have a good claim for vaccine injury, they may choose not to file it. The years of stress and the expenses (such as lost work, travel, etc.) needed to get an award may outweigh the rewards.
Even if fully half of all viable claims are filed and receive an award, it would still double the one-in-a-million-risk of serious vaccine injury to 1 in 500,000 per dose. But it’s unlikely more than 10% of viable claims are filed, and realistically, it may be as low as 1% or even lower than that.
3: Third, all vaccines doses“distributed” were counted, even if they were never actually administered to anyone.
A vaccine sitting the shelves of Walgreens or in a warehouse can’t cause a serious injury to anyone. Remember the news stories about all those flu shots sitting in storage because no one wanted to take them? This ‘overstock’ was counted among the vaccine doses used to calculate the one-in-a-million risk. That makes it look as if vaccines are safer than they are.
If only 900,000 out of the million vaccine doses distributed were actually administered to anyone, that means the real risk would be 1 in 900,000, not 1 in a million. It’s a relatively small point compared to others, but not necessarily. What if the overstock is closer to 50%? That would double the risk per vaccine dose to 1 in 500,000.
Estimating vaccination risk.
The estimate of risk of serious injury or death from a vaccine relies on unknown data, which may be obtainable to some degree, but which for now, I’m just estimating. That includes the number of vaccines distributed but not administered, and the total number of viable injury cases, whether filed with the VICP or not. Here are 3 theoretical vaccine risk estimates, depending on your level of optimism.
Overly optimistic: 10% overstock. 50% of all viable claims for vaccine injury are filed in the VICP and receive awards.
o Per-dose risk: 1 in 450,000
o Cumulative risk: Children—1 in 9,000, adults—1 in 4,500.
Cautiously hopeful: 20% overstock. 10% of viable claims are filed in the VICP and receive awards .
o Per-dose risk: 1 in 80,000
o Cumulative risk: Children—1 in 1,600, adults—1 in 800
Rationally cynical: 50% overstock. 1% of viable claims are filed in the VICP and receive awards.
o Per-dose risk: 1 in 5,000
o Cumulative risk: Children—1 in 100, adults—1 in 50
Conclusion:
The concept of ‘one-in-a-million’ was carefully crafted to convey a sense of security about the safety of vaccination, when there is none. It is used to create the impression that vaccines are extraordinarily safe. But as you have seen here, the CDC/HRSA’s own findings show the level of vaccine risk is a cause for concern. Whether you think 1 in 50, 1 in 800 or 1 in 4500 is a better estimate of risk from the CDC’s vaccine schedule, it’s still a very long way from ‘one-in-a-million’. As usual, the devil is in the details.
***
[i] CDC minimum recommended vaccines age 0-17, as of 10/8/2018 (50-60 doses). Additional vaccines are recommended for some children but are not listed.
Hep B -- 3 doses
Rotavirus -- 2-3 doses
DTaP -- 5 doses
Hib -- 3-4 doses
PCV13 -- 4 doses
IPV -- 4 doses
Influenza -- 18-25 doses
MMR -- 2 doses
Varicella -- 2 doses
Hep A -- 2 doses
Meningococcal -- 2 doses
Tdap -- 1 dose
HPV -- 2-3 doses
[ii] This is a list of injuries that have been compensated in the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program. The list is not necessarily complete.
Acute Inflammatory Neurological Injury
Acute Demyelinating Encephalomyelitis (ADEM)
Acute Disseminated Encephalomyelitis
Acute Hemorrhagic Leukoencephalomyelitis (AHLE)
Anaphylaxis
Bell's Palsy
Brachial Neuritis
Brachial Plexopathy
Cardiac arrest
Cellulitis
Cerebral Palsy
Cognitive Delays
Connective Tissue Disease
Chronic arthritis
Complex Regional Pain Syndrome
Death
Demyelinating Polyneuropathy
Disseminated varicella vaccine strain viral disease (Removed in 9/2017 from the Table)
Encephalopathy or encephalitis
Frozen Shoulder Syndrome
Guillain-Barré Syndrome
Hearing Loss
Inflammatory Tendinitis
Intussusception
Juvenile Rheumatoid Arthritis
Kleine-Levin Syndrome
Leukocytoclastic Vasculitis
Lumbosacral Raduculoplexus Neuropathy (LSRPN)
Lymphangitis
Miller Fisher Syndrome
Multiple Sclerosis
Multi-Organ Failure
Myelopathy
Myositis
Neuritis
Neuralgic Amyotrophy
Neurologic Injuries
Neuromyelitis Optica (NMO)
Optic Neuritis
Overactive Immune Response
Paralytic Polio
Paresthesias/Small Fiber Neuropathy
Parsonage Turner Syndrome
Peripheral Neuropathy
Polyneuropathy
Psoriasiform Dermatitis
Radial Nerve Injury
Shoulder Injury Related to Vaccine Administration (Removed in 9/2017 from the Table)
Spinal Cord Myelitis
Strep A infection
Systemic Inflammatory Response
Thrombocytopenic purpura
Tinnitus
Toxic Shock
Transverse Myelitis
Vasovagal syncope (Removed in 9/2017 from the Table)
Vaccine Strain Measles Viral Disease
Vaccine Strain Polio Viral Infection
Varicella vaccine strain viral reactivation (Removed in 9/2017 from the Table)
Ventricular Fibrillation
Vision Loss